China on track to hit 2020 target of 58GW nuclear power capacity

It's the fastest ramp up in history.

China’s installed capacity of 13GW for nuclear power in 2013 has increased to 20GW in 2014 and is well on track to hit its 2020 target of 58GW– with much of this front-end loaded.

According to a research note from Barclays, it estimates installed capacity increasing to 44GW by end-2017.

By 2020, China’s installed capacity would be at similar levels to France, just behind the US; and its 2030 ‘soft-target’ for installed nuclear capacity of 200GW would be double the current US capacity of 99GW.

China has taken 20 years to build 22 operating nuclear reactors, but 26 new units are expected to come on stream in the next 5 years.

Here's more from Barclays:

It has been 20 years since China commissioned its first nuclear power plant (NPP), but nuclear power in China is just starting to ramp up, and is on the verge of doubling installed capacity in the next 3 years. This would put it within reach of being the second largest nuclear plant operator in the world along with France and behind the US.

We examine the history, policy and regulatory background, equipment supply chain, project pipeline, and risks to the ramp up.

We also look at the implications of China’s nuclear ramp up for the power value chain – uranium miners (where we see the most positive impact), equipment suppliers, other power producers, and coal (which is most negatively impacted).

The ramp up of nuclear power in China is now close at hand, after over two decades since the first plant was built in 1993. Installed capacity of 13GW in 2013 has increased to 20GW in 2014 and is well on track to hit the 2020 target of 58GW– with much of this front-end loaded; we estimate an installed capacity of 44GW by end-2017.

By 2020, this would put installed capacity in China at similar levels to France, just behind the US; and China’s 2030 ‘soft-target’ for installed nuclear capacity of 200GW would be double US’s current capacity of 99GW.

China has taken 20 years to build 22 operating nuclear reactors, but 26 new units will come on stream in the next 5 years. This ramp up – the fastest in the history of the nuclear power generation industry – has profound implications across the power value chain.