IPP | Staff Reporter, China

Wind power to grab lion's share of China's renewables capacity mix

It will account around 70% of the total by 2025.

Falling technology costs, advantageous natural conditions and an expansive domestic manufacturing base for solar components and wind turbines have ensured that solar and wind power remain the technology of choice for China, according to BMI Research.

Wind will continue to dominate the renewables capacity mix over its 10-year forecast period, accounting for roughly 70% of the total by 2025, with solar taking a 25% share.

The expansion of China's renewables sector will remain largely dependent on the country's ability to upgrade the power grid infrastructure in order to improve the integration of renewables and to boost interconnections between provincial power grids. 

Here's more from BMI Research:

Idling of renewables capacity has been an issue in China for both the solar and wind industry over the last couple of years as investment into expanding and upgrading China's grid infrastructure has not kept pace with the vast amount of renewable energy that is being commissioned.

This poses a key risk to the renewables industry in China as it has the potential to dampen investor interest in the market, as companies hold-off developing projects for fears of idling and an inability to sell to the grid.

China's wind capacity has continued to increase over the last few years, as have wastage rates - as a % of total capacity. China's National Energy Administration stated that roughly 15% of wind power capacity was idled during 2015, and during the first three quarters of 2016 this had further increased to 19%.

Furthermore, the government has had to downwardly revise its capacity targets for wind and solar additions to take into account the ongoing limitations of the grid infrastructure. China is now targeting 110GW of solar capacity by 2020 (down from a previous 150GW) and 210GW of wind capacity by 2020 (reduced from a previous 250GW).

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