Dieter Billen of Roland Berger: Energy transition must create commercially viable opportunities

He explained why scalable and financially viable innovation will drive the next phase of energy transition in Asia.

With Asian countries working to meet rising electricity demand whilst strengthening energy security and reducing carbon emissions, Asia’s energy transition has entered a more complex phase. Governments are adopting strategies that reflect their unique resource endowments, economic priorities, and stages of development, rather than following a single pathway. This results in a diverse energy landscape where renewables, natural gas, nuclear power, biofuels, and emerging clean technologies all have important roles to play.

At the same time, recent geopolitical developments, supply chain disruptions, and heightened energy price volatility have reinforced the importance of building resilient and diversified energy systems. Utilities, national oil companies, investors, and technology providers are increasingly looking beyond decarbonisation targets to identify commercially viable solutions that can deliver long-term energy security.

Providing insight into these developments is Dieter Billen, Partner at Roland Berger and Head of the firm's energy practice across the region. Billen is based in Malaysia and has spent more than 15 years advising investors, energy companies, and developers on infrastructure development, renewable energy, energy efficiency, market liberalisation, and broader energy transition strategies in Southeast Asia.

Billen has already worked in multiple countries in the region, which has developed his extensive experience in helping organisations navigate the commercial and policy challenges amidst the transition towards cleaner and more secure energy systems.

As a judge for the Asian Power Awards 2026, Billen shared his perspectives on Asia's evolving energy landscape and the changing role of national oil companies. He also delved into the geopolitical risks and renewable energy opportunities in the regions, as well as the innovations that will shape the industry's future.

Having worked across multiple Asian markets, what key differences stand out in how countries approach energy development and investment?

Countries in Asia, in general, have a pragmatic approach to energy development, balancing the need for more energy with energy security concerns, affordability and a transition towards lower-carbon energy sources. Overall, energy policies are fact-driven rather than ideology-driven, which is beneficial.

There are, of course, large differences between Asian countries, given a wide variety of levels of development and resource endowments. For example, the focus in Indonesia is on catering to rapidly growing electricity demand and energy security concerns, for example, for the import of LNG and LPG, whilst boosting its underdeveloped solar potential.

Singapore, on the other hand, is more focused on how to decarbonise its power sector, which is largely gas-based, through importing renewable electricity from other countries and biomethane.

Nuclear is being assessed or planned in most countries across the region, including countries in Southeast Asia – as nuclear can provide firm, clean power and is important to cater to growing electricity demand and manage the coal phase-out in countries with a significant coal mix, like Indonesia and Peninsular Malaysia.

Given the situation in the Middle East and the closure of the Strait of Hormuz, energy security is at the centre of energy policies, with countries prioritising domestic resources through enhanced oil and gas production where possible; promoting electrification, including EVs; and boosting biofuels, like ethanol and biodiesel.

Many countries in the region also see a strong opportunity in the manufacturing or assembly of energy equipment, from wind turbine components to solar panel assembly and power cables. China is, of course, the frontrunner, dominating energy equipment supply chains, especially in batteries, EVs and solar panels. But also emerging markets like Vietnam and Indonesia are playing an increasing role, leveraging lower costs and availability of resources for certain components.

How do you think national oil companies in Asia are adapting to increasing pressure from investors, regulators, and consumers to reduce emissions?

National oil companies in Asia have already taken an important role in the energy transition, from investing in renewables, EV charging, biofuels like Sustainable Aviation Fuels, biomethane production and transport, to green hydrogen and other clean fuels. Also, practically all national oil companies are planning for carbon capture and storage projects in the region, as they are in a strategic position to use their expertise in CAPEX management and offshore fields for the CO₂ storage and CO₂ transport (pipeline and shipping).

At the same time, national oil companies also have an important mandate to generate profit and ensure energy security for the country. For example, most national oil companies are investing strongly in further exploration and production to ensure security of supply (at home and abroad), gas infrastructure and building a gas portfolio, including through trading and arbitrage opportunities.

National oil companies are playing an important role in decarbonisation, not only because of their commitments to reduce emissions, but also as a growth avenue for new business opportunities and moving away from the volatility of oil and gas prices.

How would you assess the impact of geopolitical tensions and supply chain disruptions on Asia’s energy security strategy?

The situation in the Middle East and the closure of the Strait of Hormuz have made energy security the main short-term priority for countries and energy companies.

Due to the war in Iran, physical flows were disrupted, storage levels dropped, and prices spiked, creating an extremely volatile environment for companies dependent on fuels (crude oil and LNG), fertiliser inputs, petrochemicals and critical minerals like helium, impacting entire value chains.

Even countries with significant natural resources and energy production were impacted, given the integration of energy and product flows with the Middle East.

In addition to the physical shortages, there was also the rapid price increase and price volatility. Integrated players, including many of the national oil companies, were better protected against those shocks. Companies with longer-term commitments and hedging were also in a relatively stronger position.

Given the importance of energy security, Asian countries will prioritise domestic oil & gas production where possible and focus on energy sources that limit reliance on the import of fuels, like renewables (esp. solar in South-East Asia) with storage (battery energy storage, pumped hydro), electrification (e.g., further EV penetration growth), and nuclear – although nuclear will take time and will not be a realistic source of generation in South-East Asia before the mid-2030s.

Given the importance of energy security, countries in the region are also boosting the production and demand for biofuels (ethanol, biogas, biomethane, Sustainable Aviation Fuels, biodiesel, etc) – leveraging abundant feedstock in the region for many of these biofuels. For example, several countries, including Indonesia and Vietnam, have adopted higher ethanol mandates for road transport to reduce demand for gasoline and enhance energy security and decarbonisation.

How can oil and gas companies further leverage their existing capabilities and infrastructure to participate in the renewable energy value chain?

Many national oil and gas companies have already entered into renewables development, esp. solar and wind, in their home countries and abroad. Some have built extensive renewable portfolios, including utility-scale renewables (e.g., solar parks and wind farms) and decentralised renewables (e.g., solar rooftops).

The entry and growth of national oil and gas companies into renewables has generally been successful, leveraging their experience in project development and CAPEX management. In the case of offshore wind, national oil and gas companies also benefit from their offshore capabilities.

Whilst national oil and gas companies have generally been successful in growing their renewables portfolio, margins are relatively low and, in many markets, declining due to intense competition. Hence, there is a need to expand into higher-margin renewable business models, including corporate power purchase agreements (e.g., with data centres), battery energy storage systems and on-site energy services to commercial & industrial clients.

Some national oil & gas companies in the region have also expanded into adjacent parts of the value chain, such as steel fabrication for offshore wind.

What key challenges could impact the region’s progress toward a secure and sustainable energy future, and how can companies help address them?

The key challenge is policy uncertainty. Let’s take the example of nuclear power, which can become an important part of the electricity mix, providing clean and reliable power (and steam). However, investing in nuclear power plants is very CAPEX-heavy and risky – with many projects globally (especially in the US and Europe) plagued by delays and cost overruns. Planning for nuclear requires strong and continued government support, given the risks and long timelines involved.

The most important mindset shift that has happened in the region is the change from seeing the energy transition as a trend, with companies making commitments and announcing plans, to seeing the energy transition as opening many new business opportunities.

As a judge in the Asian Oil & Gas Awards 2026, what key qualities will you look for when assessing the nominees?

The region will need a lot of innovation that can work in the absence of strong government support or high carbon prices. Therefore, the combination of innovation (from a technology or business model) with financial viability and impact will be an important criterion. Also, the ability to scale will be critical.