ASEAN Power Grid delay could cost region $2.6b annually: Ember

This could accumulate to about $14b over five years.

Delays to the ASEAN Power Grid (APG) will cost the region $2.6b for every year the project slips past its 2035 target, accumulating to nearly $14b over five years, according to Ember.

Ember's report, "The ASEAN Power Grid: Why Every Year of Delay Matters," published on 20 August, models the economic, fuel, and emissions costs of postponing the regional grid, which links national power systems across Southeast Asia.

A one-year delay adds 12.13 billion cubic metres to regional gas consumption, equivalent to the cargo capacity of 78 Q-Max vessels, the world's largest liquefied natural gas carriers.

The same delay produces an extra 42.1 million tonnes of carbon dioxide emissions.

Singapore stands to lose the most from any slippage, with interconnectors able to meet 49% of the city-state's electricity demand by 2035 under the base case. A delay cuts that figure to just 2.5%.

Renewable-rich exporters including Indonesia's Sumatra, Lao PDR, Cambodia, and Myanmar face separate losses.

These regions forgo more than $1.1b in export revenue for each year construction stalls, as they lose the ability to sell surplus solar and hydropower to demand centres such as Singapore and Thailand.

"Rising geopolitical tensions will continue to expose fuel-importing economies to supply disruptions and price volatility," said Lam Pham, Energy Analyst at Ember and the report's lead author. "What remains is timely execution. Every year of delay carries real economic and energy security costs."

Dr Victor Nian, Founding Co-chairman of the Centre for Strategic Energy and Resources, said harmonised tariff frameworks serve as "a strategic foundation for mobilising capital, strengthening regional energy security and turning ASEAN's clean power potential into shared economic value."

Dr Priyantha Wijayatunga, Deputy Director General at the Asian Development Bank's Sectors Department 1, said regional energy interconnectivity is becoming "increasingly urgent" for three reasons: energy security, growing electricity demand from AI and digitalisation, and climate change.

He described the APG as "an important stepping stone toward the successful realisation of ADB's Pan-Asian Power Grid Initiative."

The APG links national power systems across ASEAN member states through cross-border electricity trade, with the aim of accelerating the region's transition to renewable energy, whilst cutting reliance on imported fossil fuels.