Super El Niño may test Asian power grids in waves through 2027

Consumers could ultimately bear the cost through higher electricity prices.

Asian power markets face successive periods of tighter electricity supply and stronger demand as a potential Super El Niño develops, with the pressure expected to move across countries from late 2026 into the first half (H1) of 2027, analysts said.

Eldon Lopes, research manager for meteorology at Wood Mackenzie Ltd., said the weather event is already matching the intensity of spring 2015 despite starting later in the year. It is expected to surpass the 2015-2016 and 1997-1998 events to become the strongest El Niño on record, he added.

Yi Ming, a professor at the Department of Earth and Environmental Sciences of Boston College, expects sea temperatures in the eastern Pacific to reach about 3.5 degrees Celsius above normal by October.

“That makes the current El Niño officially a super El Niño because the definition is above 2.5 degrees Celsius,” he told Asian Power via Zoom. “The expectation right now is that this will set a new record.”

Nikhil Babu, a research analyst for power and renewables at Wood Mackenzie, said the impact would be “a rotating sequence of tighter power systems across Asia, rather than a single region-wide peak.”

El Niño events typically last six months to just over a year, Lopes said in an emailed reply to questions. Peak strength is expected from late fall 2026 to early winter 2026-2027, with Asian markets taking the brunt of the impact from the fourth quarter (Q4) of 2026 through the second quarter of 2027.

Timing will be a key risk because power demand peaks at different times across Asian markets, Babu said.

India and Thailand have passed their spring demand peaks, whilst China is expected to reach 1,575 to 1,600 gigawatts (GW) of peak demand between July and September. Japan, South Korea, and Taiwan are expected to peak in August, whilst Vietnam's peak demand is about 58 GW.

Australia and New Zealand face a later risk between December and February, when summer demand coincides with potentially stronger El Niño conditions, Babu said.

The first major supply shock could emerge in Q4 as warmer eastern Pacific waters cause drier conditions across Southeast Asia and reduce hydropower availability, Ming said.

A second wave could follow about a month later as the effects shift from the supply side to electricity demand. A positive Indian Ocean Dipole could intensify the drying effect by drawing rainfall away from Southeast Asia, he added.

“Precipitation normally just follows the warm ocean,” Ming said.

Hotter conditions could also constrain thermal generation if cooling water becomes too warm to operate power plants effectively. Operators could then be forced to reduce output or shut units, creating a supply constraint separate from fuel availability and hydropower levels.

Dinita Setyawati, a senior energy analyst for Asia at Ember Energy Research CIC, said disaster risk reduction and energy planning should be incorporated into power-sector planning.

Measures could include securing rooftop solar installations, making wind farms resistant to water and flooding, and developing smarter and more automated grids, she said.

Utilities should also integrate high-frequency weather forecasts into planning, Setyawati said. Vietnam, for example, could use battery storage to preserve solar power and offset weaker hydropower output, whilst the Philippines and Singapore have developed advanced forecasting and grid command systems.

Consumers to bear cost

Setyawati said distributed renewable generation could improve resilience because disruptions are less likely to affect an entire power system.

India's record demand is less likely to threaten reliability because more than 65% of its electricity demand is being met by coal, Babu said. Weaker hydropower would therefore mainly increase coal use.

China faces greater hydropower risk if weaker inflows coincide with high east-coast demand, whilst Vietnam could see record demand during a weaker hydropower season.

Japan, South Korea, and Taiwan face heat-driven demand during their August peaks, with tighter reserve margins making them more sensitive to renewable and hydropower shortfalls.

New Zealand could also face significant pressure because hydropower accounts for about 54% of its electricity generation.

The Philippines' Luzon grid and Pakistan's monsoon-fed reservoirs are also exposed to hydropower risks, Babu said.

The impact will vary by market, with China, Vietnam, Australia, and New Zealand facing sharper risks than India, where coal could absorb much of the additional demand, he said.

Setyawati also warned that a second gas supply crisis could compound hydropower losses in gas-reliant markets such as Singapore and Indonesia.

Consumers could ultimately bear the cost through higher electricity prices, or governments could absorb the pressure through subsidies at the expense of public finances, she said.

Southeast Asia faces more demand pressure because high humidity could prevent temperatures from falling significantly at night, Ming said.

“You have to keep supplying electricity for cooling 24/7 in Southeast Asia,” he added.

The result is a moving risk across Asian power markets, with supply and demand pressures shifting between countries through the rest of 2026 and into H1 2027.