SEA to deliver less than one-third of planned gas power by 2030

Governments target 53GW but only 14.9GW is expected by 2030.

Southeast Asia (SEA) is on track to deliver less than one-third of its planned gas-fired power capacity by 2030, as equipment shortages, financing constraints, and infrastructure gaps slow project execution, according to Wood Mackenzie.

Governments across six SEA markets have targeted about 53 gigawatts (GW) of new gas-fired capacity by 2030, but the firm expects only 14.9GW to reach commercial operation during the decade.

It attributed the shortfall to volatile fuel costs, gas turbine shortages, financing constraints, and liquefied natural gas (LNG) infrastructure bottlenecks.

Wood Mackenzie also found that developers have secured gas turbines for only 11GW of the planned gas-to-power pipeline. The remaining projects are likely to face delivery lead times of at least five years, reducing the likelihood that many will begin operating before 2030.

"The challenge today is not planning power projects but executing them. New gas-fired capacity depends on several critical enablers, including LNG infrastructure, project financing, and turbine availability. A bottleneck in any one of these areas can delay an entire project," said Alvin Tan, Power and Renewables Research Analyst for SEA at Wood Mackenzie.

Wei Han Tan, Power and Renewables Research Analyst for SEA at Wood Mackenzie, said gas project delays and tighter supply chains are forcing policymakers to rethink the role of gas in the near term, as well as long-term pathways to achieving their energy transition goals.

The report projects SEA's electricity demand will increase 2.4-fold by 2050, driven by industrial expansion, the China+1 manufacturing shift, and investment in semiconductor production, electronics, and hyperscale data centres.

It forecasts that gas demand from the power sector will more than double between 2026 and 2050 and account for more than one-quarter of regional electricity generation by mid-century.

Wood Mackenzie expects SEA to become a net gas importer by 2033, with LNG supplying more than 80% of regional gas demand by 2050.

Amongst Southeast Asian states, Vietnam has the largest gap between government targets and Wood Mackenzie's forecast. The government plans to add 29.4GW of gas-fired capacity by 2030, but the research firm expects only 3.7GW to enter operation.

Wood Mackenzie attributed the gap to commercial challenges linked to LNG-to-power projects, uncertainty over domestic gas supply, and project delays.

In Malaysia, Wood Mackenzie forecasts 5.9GW of new gas-fired capacity against a requirement of about 9.4GW.

The report said Peninsular Malaysia has extended the operating life of nearly 5GW of existing gas-fired capacity through 2030 to manage near-term execution risks, whilst new projects progress.

Indonesia has secured gas turbines for only 200 megawatts of its planned 8.4GW pipeline, the lowest share amongst the markets assessed.

Wood Mackenzie said abundant domestic coal reduces near-term reliability risks but could slow decarbonisation, whilst policymakers continue to expand solar capacity alongside selected gas projects.

The Philippines is expected to add 0.4GW of gas-fired capacity by 2030 against a government target of about 2GW.

Beyond project delays, Wood Mackenzie said fragmented responsibility for long-term resource planning remains a structural challenge after simultaneous red alerts on the Luzon and Visayas grids in May 2026.

Thailand targets 1.4GW of new gas-fired capacity by 2030, whilst Wood Mackenzie expects 0.5GW to come online.

The report said policymakers continue to address surplus generation capacity under long-term power purchase agreements as the country advances its energy transition.

Singapore remains the strongest performer in project execution, with turbine supply secured for all major projects expected before 2030.

Wood Mackenzie said the country's planned procurement of 1.8GW of hydrogen-ready generation capacity will test equipment availability as global supply tightens.