Japan nuclear restart faces waste, licensing and community hurdles

Lengthy approval cycles threaten to stretch timelines as waste storage remains unresolved.

Waste management, licensing delays, and public resistance continue to weigh on Japan’s push to restart its nuclear power plants, according to GlobalData.

Its latest report said the country’s nuclear generation recovered to 101.0 terawatt-hours (TWh) in 2025 and is projected to rise to 123.3 TWh by 2035, but capacity is expected to remain mostly flat through 2029, with modest gains beginning in 2030 to 2031.

Attaurrahman Ojindaram Saibasan, Power Analyst at GlobalData, said existing nuclear power plants from the pre-2011 fleet are being requalified, alongside safety upgrades.

“Nonetheless, community mistrust, slow radiation safety reviews, and unresolved decisions on waste storage remain significant barriers to what should otherwise be swift progress,” Saibasan said.

The Israel–Iran conflict has sharpened the urgency behind Japan’s nuclear restart strategy, as disruptions to oil and natural gas shipping lanes have exposed vulnerabilities in global fuel supply chains.

Nuclear power provides a more stable, domestically secure source of baseload electricity, whilst rising fossil fuel prices and uncertainty in Middle Eastern energy markets have pushed electricity costs higher for households and industries.

This has made nuclear power’s comparatively predictable costs more attractive, according to GlobalData.

However, debates over interim storage and the location of permanent high-level nuclear waste sites continue, with social resistance and lengthy approval cycles threatening to stretch restart timelines.

Licensing processes covering seismic resilience, severe accident mitigation, hydrogen explosion prevention, and inspections of ageing equipment can extend over several years and involve multiple regulatory bodies.

Public acceptance also remains fragile, with concerns over radiation, transparency in safety upgrades, and waste siting contributing to local resistance.

Saibasan said Japan needs nationally endorsed roadmaps for high-level waste management, transparent programmes for reactor safety upgrades, permitting processes that proceed in stages and include community dialogue, and stronger support for advanced reactor designs such as small modular reactors.

He said Japan could reach its goal of around 20% to 22% nuclear generation share by 2030 if these measures are executed well, stabilising the energy mix, lowering emissions, and reducing its reliance on imported fuels.

“If not, nuclear will struggle to hit its mark, and thermal power will have to shoulder the burden at greater financial, environmental, and operational cost, especially amidst volatile global energy markets and disrupted supply routes,” he said.