China’s coal buildout surges in 2025 despite falling emissions

New and revived coal plans surged to 161 GW.

China’s carbon dioxide emissions from the power sector moved into decline for the first time in 2025 as rapid clean-energy deployment reduced coal generation, the Centre for Research on Energy and Clean Air and Global Energy Monitor said.

However, even as coal’s role in the electricity system weakened, proposals for new and revived coal-fired power plants surged to unprecedented levels, raising concerns about long-term overcapacity and misalignment with the country’s climate goals.

The report showed that new and reactivated coal power proposals reached a record 161 gigawatts (GW) in 2025.

China also commissioned 78 GW of new coal capacity — more than India added net over the entire 2015–2024 period, despite India running the world’s second-largest coal fleet.

Most of the new plants stem from a permitting wave launched in 2022 after electricity shortages linked to weak system flexibility.

Since then, renewable energy has expanded rapidly and now meets all growth in power demand.

Analysts warn that continued coal construction could lock China into excess capacity that is inconsistent with both electricity needs and climate commitments.

China’s 2030 climate pledge points to no further growth in power-sector emissions, and its 15th Five-Year Plan calls for replacing fossil fuels with wind and solar.

Despite those targets, China still had 291 GW of coal-fired capacity in its development pipeline by the end of 2025 — projects that have already been permitted or are under construction — equal to roughly 23% of the existing operating fleet.

If completed without a corresponding acceleration in plant retirements, the new units would likely push utilisation rates lower and deepen structural overcapacity in the sector.

At the same time, China commissioned about 74 GW of new energy-storage capacity in 2025, a volume broadly comparable to the coal capacity added during the year.

The rapid build-out of batteries and other flexible resources is increasingly reducing coal’s role in meeting peak demand and stabilising the grid, further weakening the economic case for sustained coal expansion.