Global coal demand peaks in 2025, set to decline by 2030

China and major markets cut coal as global demand shifts.

Global coal demand peaked in 2025 at 8.85b tonnes and is expected to gradually decline to 2023 levels by 2030, as competition from alternative power sources intensifies, according to an International Energy Agency (IEA) market report.

“Despite uncharacteristic trends in several key coal markets in 2025, our forecast for the coming years has not changed substantially from a year ago: we expect global coal demand to plateau before edging down by 2030,” said Keisuke Sadamori, IEA Director of Energy Markets and Security.

The report cites renewables, natural gas, and nuclear power as competitors, with around two-thirds of coal consumption coming from the power sector.

Although a decline is expected to begin in 2026, industrial demand remains resilient.

In China, the world’s largest coal consumer, coal use is forecast to fall by 2030 due to rapid deployment of renewable energy and government targets for peak consumption. Beijing also reduced coal imports in 2025 because of oversupply and weak domestic demand, a trend expected to continue, contributing to the decline in global coal trade.

Major markets, including the European Union, Japan, and South Korea, are also reducing imports, further affecting global coal trade.

India’s coal demand is projected to rise by around 3% per year, adding 200 million tonnes by 2030, whilst Southeast Asia is expected to see approximately a 4% increase over the same period.