Which Asian countries will lead adoption of ammonia for power generation?

Four countries are seen to lead the shift.

As the world fuels efforts to meet its net-zero goals, these four Asian countries are expected to emerge as key hubs for the transition to ammonia from coal for power generation.

According to Rystad Energy, China, Indonesia, Japan, and South Korea will be key markets in this shift.

“While Japan and Indonesia moved early to explore ammonia co-firing for power generation, China has taken a later but more decisive approach by embedding it as a decarbonisation strategy in its National Development and Reform Commission (NDRC) 2024-2027 Action Plan. China is moving directly to national targets before large-scale feasibility trials,” Rystad said.

Beijing is requiring coal plants that are upgraded or newly commissioned to cut emissions by half compared to 2023 levels starting 2027. The country also eyes 10% co-firing of biomass and green ammonia alongside carbon capture, utilisation and storage (CCUS) technologies.

Rystad expects the roll-out of ammonia co-firing to take more than the targeted two years, given the size of China’s coal power generation fleet.

In South Korea, the country eyes to back hydrogen-for-power by 2029, with the country’s Ministry of Trade, Industry and Energy (MOTIE) having launched its second clean hydrogen power generation auction. Winning bidders, to be selected later this year, must begin generating power using hydrogen or derivatives such as ammonia by 2029 under a 15-year contract covering 3 terawatt-hours (TWh) of electricity.

“Whilst this is 3.5 terrawatt-hours less than the inaugural round, Rystad Energy estimates that producing this volume will still require around 200,000 tonnes of low-carbon hydrogen each year,” the analysis said.

Japan has also made significant progress, thanks to its adoption of the technology early on.

“The nation has secured key contracts and attracted foreign investment to maintain a steady supply of low-carbon ammonia, planning to source blue ammonia from the US and green ammonia from China and India to scale up and address domestic supply shortages,” Rystad said.

Tokyo will also announce next year the winners of its contract for difference programme, which is expected to provide additional support for its ammonia-for-power ambitions and help the country meet its emissions targets.