Strong recovery seen for Thai energy companies in Q2

The recent quake and trade war will have minimal impact.

Thai energy firms are expected to see a strong recovery in the second quarter (Q2) of 2025, thanks to seasonal demand growth.

According to UOB Kay Hian, electricity demand in Thailand usually peaks in Q2, driven by the summer hot season (April-May) and increased consumption during the Songkran holidays. This, along with the rebound in tourism and commercial activities post-first quarter, will fuel electricity sales volume in Q2. 

UOB expects minimal impact from the recent earthquake that rocked Myanmar and Thailand. 

“Most of the Thai power sector assets — including large-scale power plants operated by Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand — are located in low seismic risk areas such as Rayong, Chonburi, Pathum Thani, Ayutthaya, and Laos, all of which are far from major fault lines,” its report said.

UOB also sees minimal impact from the US’s reciprocal tariff since most major Thai utilities are mainly focused on domestic power generation and regional investments, specifically in Laos, and Vietnam.

“However, we foresee small indirect impacts over the longer term. If reciprocal tariffs were to disrupt Thailand’s export sectors — particularly auto parts, electronics, and food processing — this could lead to weaker industrial electricity demand, affecting SPPs that supply power to manufacturing clients,” the analysis said.

UOB expects a meaningful increase in capex, as most infrastructure and equipment — turbines, transformers, and control systems — is sourced from Europe, Asia, or domestic suppliers, rather than from the US.