Global conventional geothermal capacity to increase by 50% in 2030

Several factors will further drive growth through 2050.

The global conventional geothermal capacity is projected to increase almost 50% to 22 gigawatts (GW) in 2030, further rising to 60 GW in 2050, according to the International Energy Agency’s (IEA) Stated Policies Scenario.

In a report, IEA said this scenario assumes that projects under development and planned for the upcoming decade will be deployed under existing government policies.

Beyond 2030, growth will be driven by untapped economic potential, government goals, and increasing geothermal competitiveness.

“In fact, the Announced Pledges Scenario demonstrates that global geothermal capacity in 2050 could be more than 30% higher, reaching over 80 GW with faster implementation of existing projects and the permitting of new drilling,” the report read.

However, the outlook for conventional geothermal power capacity in both scenarios remains significantly below untapped economic potential in almost all countries.

“This reflects the prohibitive investment cost of developing geothermal projects compared with other renewables such as solar PV and onshore wind, and a lack of policy attention and awareness to address high predevelopment risks,” IEA said.

Meanwhile, global annual geothermal electricity capacity additions have fluctuated over the past decade, ranging from less than 200 megawatts (MW) to over 800 MW per year, due to the commissioning of a few large-scale projects."

The expansion from 2024 to 2030 period is expected to increase compared with the 2017 to 2023 deployment in most traditional markets. This will be led by Indonesia, thanks to large-scale projects being constructed under private-public partnerships.