Warning: Most solar manufacturers may vanish by 2015

As plunging prices erode margins and drive the weakest out of business, said Trina CEO Jifan Gao.

“This is the decade of mergers and acquisitions,” Jifan Gao, chief executive officer of Changzhou, China-based Trina, said in an interview with Bloomberg. “From now until 2015 is the first phase, when about two-thirds of the players will be shaken out.”

Three U.S. solar companies including Solyndra LsLC have gone bankrupt this year and more, led by First Solar Inc. (FSLR) and Yingli Green Energy Holding Co., slashed sales and margin forecasts, reflecting slower growth in demand and stiffer competition.

Gao, who founded Trina in 1997, predicted that only about five companies may survive through 2020 in each of the three major manufacturing segments. He defined those as photovoltaic panels, ingots and wafers, and the raw material polysilicon.

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