IEEFA finds issues in seven proposed nuclear plants in Australia

Cost, timing, and compatibility were amongst those pointed out.

The Institute for Energy Economics and Financial Analysis (IEEFA) said it saw significant issues after analysing the proposal of Australia’s opposition Coalition to build seven nuclear plants.

“Research by IEEFA calls into question whether nuclear makes financial sense for Australia, for a multitude of reasons including cost, timing, compatibility with renewables, and other financial questions,” said Johanna Bowyer, lead analyst for Australian Electricity at IEEFA.

In terms of cost, Bowyer noted that nuclear power is much more expensive than renewables plus storage.

“CSIRO has modelled large-scale conventional nuclear reactors to be 1.5 to two times more expensive than renewables with storage and transmission, and nuclear SMRs [small modular reactors] to be about four times more expensive,” she said.

Bowyer said IEEFA experts have also found that SMRs in operation or under construction cost three to seven times more than originally planned. Those in the US have also already seen cost estimates blow out by between two and four times in recent years, she added.

The analyst also raised doubts that the plants could come online until the 2040s.

“Nuclear takes a very long time to build. The Coalition stated that nuclear power plants would be online by 2035, but this is not feasible,” she said. 

Bowyer pointed out that time is needed to develop a regulatory regime for nuclear power. It will also take years to complete planning, contracting, and pre-construction works to finally start the building process.

She noted that few existing SMRs in operation around the world took over 12 years to build, despite original construction schedules of three to four years. Large reactors also have a history of long delays, with most recent projects in the US and Europe taking 10 years or longer.

Bowyer also questioned the proposal of the Coalition to have nuclear power operating alongside rooftop solar. 

“However the financials of nuclear power plants deteriorate when they reduce down their output to accommodate solar, so there are significant questions around that notion,” she said.

Bowyer said there are also financial questions regarding the nuclear plants that have to be addressed.

“There are a range of questions related to the nuclear proposal, including the cost of decommissioning the reactors, the strategy and cost to dispose of nuclear waste, and liability for nuclear accidents – like the 2011 Fukushima disaster which is still being cleaned up, and could end up costing as much as $660b,” she pointed out.