ASEAN faces emissions crisis as fossil fuels dominate power growth

Urgent renewable expansion is needed.

ASEAN’s dependence on fossil fuels to meet surging electricity demand has triggered emissions challenges, with renewables failing to keep pace, warns a new report from Ember.

With electricity demand rising 3.6% in 2023 alone, entirely met by fossil fuels, experts stress that ASEAN must expand its renewable energy capacity three to five times by 2035 to avoid missing climate targets.

Dr. Dinita Setyawati, Senior Electricity Policy Analyst for Southeast Asia at Ember, highlighted ASEAN’s rapid growth as both an opportunity and a risk. “ASEAN is a dynamic region where economic growth remains strong,” she noted, pointing to accelerating industrialisation and electrification efforts across the region.

"Without rapid scaling of energy efficiency solutions and low-carbon electricity sources, emissions could rise significantly," warned Shabrina Nadhila, Electricity Policy Analyst at Ember. She added that continued reliance on fossil fuels could increase emissions by up to 41% from 2023 levels by 2030.

The slow renewable adoption risks locking ASEAN into a fossil-fuel-heavy energy mix, putting climate goals at risk and missing opportunities from declining solar and wind costs. “If ASEAN continues its energy transitions at the current pace… it would risk missing out on the opportunities provided by the declining cost of wind and solar,” cautioned Dr. Setyawati.

Ember's report outlines essential steps to close this renewable gap. "Interconnections, or grid connectivity, is the game changer for ASEAN energy transition,” Dr. Setyawati emphasised. Connecting regional grids can diversify energy sources, enhance energy security, and facilitate more private investments.

Nadhila stressed the importance of removing barriers to private investment in renewables by refining the ASEAN taxonomy for sustainable finance and streamlining approval processes. She also pointed to the potential of carbon markets, noting, “Setting up a compliance carbon market with standardised rules can increase the scale and impact of carbon financing.”

Ember’s analysts also underscored the potential for ASEAN countries to leverage their complementary renewable resources. For example, wind power in Laos and Thailand aligns with solar in Malaysia and Singapore, creating a mutually beneficial energy-sharing network.