Thai power sector poised for 20% core EPS growth

Power Development Plan and tariff normalisation underpin outlook.

Thailand’s power sector is expected to deliver average core earnings per share growth of 20% year on year (YoY) as power tariffs stabilise against energy costs, according to Maybank Securities (Thailand).

Aggregate net profit for the sector in 4Q25 is estimated at $121.6m (THB3.8b), up 10% YoY but down 32% quarter on quarter (QoQ), whilst aggregate core profit is forecast at $115.2m (THB3.6b), rising 9% YoY but falling 29% QoQ, reflecting seasonal factors.

Maybank expects the sector to regain its defensive profile as tariff and fuel cost mismatches ease, with a new Power Development Plan expected to be released for public hearing in 2026 and likely to include significantly higher new capacity than the FY24 draft.

Amongst covered names, BCPG is Maybank’s top pick, with Q4 2025 net profit estimated at $15.616m (THB488m), up 198% YoY, whilst core profit is forecast at $16.928m (THB529m), up 132% YoY, supported by higher PJM capacity prices and the full commercial operation of its Laos wind project.

Global Power Synergy (GPSC) is expected to report Q4 2025 net profit of $43.84m (THB1.37b), up 37% YoY, whilst core profit is projected at $31.52m (THB985m), up 31% YoY, driven by offshore wind contributions and liquidated damages claims.

Looking ahead, the first quarter (Q1) of 2026 core profit is expected to rise both YoY and QoQ, despite a recent rise in LNG prices, as gas pool prices and power tariffs remain lower than a year earlier, reinforcing expectations of sector-wide earnings growth.

($1.00 = THB31.72)