What a $635b investment push could mean for India’s refineries and thermal power plants

The country is expected to lead global oil consumption in the next decade. 

As India Energy Week shines a spotlight on the country’s energy trajectory, scrutiny on oil refiners and coal-fired thermal plants is intensifying rapidly.

India is expected to deliver the largest increase in global oil consumption over the coming decade, with energy consumption growth forecast to outstrip that of any other emerging or developing economy. This expansion comes at a time when emissions are under heightened global attention and energy transition efforts are accelerating worldwide.

At the same time, a planned US$500b ($635b) investment push into India’s energy sector is accelerating capacity expansion and infrastructure development. The investment aims to take the country’s refining capacity from 260 million tonnes per annum to beyond 300 million tonnes.

As the industry waits for the new capacity to come online, existing refineries will likely need to operate harder and more reliably. India’s coal-fired thermal power plants are also facing similar challenges to run at high utilisation whilst managing ageing assets and short maintenance windows during transition.

Together, these forces place refiners and power plants in a difficult position: deliver higher output whilst improving efficiency and cutting emissions. This creates a structural tension, as higher throughput typically drives higher energy use when many refineries are already operating near their efficiency limits.

As a result, the commercial focus is doubling down on protecting existing assets. Avoiding unplanned shutdowns, maintenance backlogs, and extending equipment life are still amongst the most effective ways to control costs and deliver progress without disruption.

Stretched to the limit
India’s oil market is one of the fastest-growing globally, with consumption set to rise to 8.2 million barrels per day (mbpd) by 2050. Policies such as Make in India 2.0, aimed at boosting domestic production and energy self-sufficiency, are adding further pressure on refiners and power producers to meet rising demand. At the same time, global uncertainty and geopolitical events introduce further complexity to the industry.

To keep pace, many Indian refineries and power plants are already operating near full capacity, leaving minimal room for unexpected disruptions.
When disruptions do occur, the knock-on effects are immediate, driving up costs and often increasing emissions as operations become less efficient. In a system operating with very little flexibility, reliability is a strategic priority to safeguard margins.

Practical implications 
As fired heaters and other high-temperature assets age, corrosion and material degradation reduce thermal efficiency, forcing units to burn more fuel and operate under greater stress to maintain throughput.

Over time, this speeds up wear and tear, increases the risk of unplanned shutdowns drives up costs. Left unaddressed, declining efficiency becomes a big problem where fuel spend rises, emissions intensity increases, and margins are squeezed.

Unplanned disruptions often stem from degradation of these assets. When failures occur, units are forced into shutdowns or less efficient operating modes, all of which increase fuel use and raise emissions intensity.

For many refiners, restoring efficiency and extending asset life offers one of the fastest ways to cut costs and emissions without major capital investment, particularly in India, where refiners are marked by high utilisation. This reality is reshaping how maintenance is viewed across the industry. What was once focused on safety and uptime is now central to emissions performance and profitability.

Proven technologies are already delivering results
A range of established solutions is already helping refiners address asset degradation whilst limiting disruption. Solutions such as fired heater online refractory repair, high-emissivity ceramic coatings, and process vessel advanced alloy cladding allow critical equipment to be protected and run optimally whilst units remain in service or during short, planned shutdowns.

By keeping assets protected and operating consistently, these interventions help maintain efficient heat transfer and slow processes that increase fuel inefficiency. Just as importantly, they reduce the need for major turnarounds and emergency repairs, resulting in fewer shutdowns, lower restart emissions, and more stable operations at higher utilisation rates in the long term.

Many leading operators are pursuing proactive, technology-led asset strategies. By combining inspection, monitoring, and targeted protection, operators can address degradation early to protect costs and lower emissions.

This proactive shift not only improves the day-to-day performance but also strengthens resilience across the refining system, supporting more consistent and lower-carbon operations over the long term.

A pivotal moment for India’s energy sector 
India Energy Week comes at a defining point. Refiners and power plants are being asked to do more with less room for disruption. Demand continues to rise, emission expectations are tightening, and existing assets are carrying an increasing share of the burden.

In this environment, keeping equipment running efficiently is a crucial way to cut emissions whilst maintaining steady fuel supplies, whilst also waiting for large new projects to come online.

Whilst the success of India’s energy transition will be partly dependent on new investment, keeping existing refineries must be kept reliable throughout the journey.