Can Central Asia and the Caucasus become world’s next green energy hub?

Strengthening interconnectors between countries is deemed crucial.

Central Asia and the Caucasus have vast potential for green energy corridors to drive large-scale renewable energy development, according to a new report by Ember.

As COP29 begins, the focus is on 'green energy corridors' to boost renewable energy through regional collaboration. The report highlighted that the Central Asia and the Caucasus, with Azerbaijan at the forefront, are set to lead these efforts.

"Central Asia can secure its energy future by prioritizing renewable energy, as current systems are struggling to keep up with rising electricity and gas demand," it said.

"The planned green energy corridors connecting Kazakhstan, Uzbekistan, Azerbaijan, Türkiye, and the EU could bring together these diverse renewable sources, delivering low-cost, sustainable power across borders," it added.

The report said the region remains dependent on fossil fuels, with gas and coal making up the majority of energy production. Gas makes up over half of the region's power generation, with Turkmenistan (99%), Uzbekistan (94%), and Azerbaijan (89%) relying heavily on gas. In Kazakhstan, coal accounts for 57% of electricity generation, with gas contributing 29%.

Hydropower is the primary renewable source, providing 76%-88% of electricity in Tajikistan, Kyrgyzstan, and Georgia.

As a result, the region's power sector emits 239 million tonnes of CO2 annually, 62% more than Turkey, despite Turkey's 8% higher electricity demand.

Kazakhstan, with its vast land area, has the highest onshore wind potential in the region, capable of generating an estimated 929 TWh annually—three times the region’s current total power demand. The Caspian Sea offers an offshore wind potential of 845 GW, with 509 GW in shallow waters, making it more cost-effective to develop.

Southern countries like Turkmenistan and Uzbekistan have substantial solar resources. Turkmenistan’s solar potential is estimated at 655 GW—eight times the region’s current total installed capacity. Uzbekistan’s solar potential is also high, with estimates reaching 27 GW. Even Azerbaijan, with more moderate resources, has up to 23 GW of potential.

Hydropower remains a major energy source in Tajikistan, Kyrgyzstan, and Georgia. Tajikistan alone has an estimated 264 TWh of economically viable hydropower potential, while Kyrgyzstan has 55 TWh. Kazakhstan holds 62 TWh of technical hydropower potential. However, much of the region’s hydropower capacity remains untapped, providing significant opportunities for development.

Kazakhstan is leading the way with its net-zero target and aims to increase the share of renewable energy (excluding large hydropower) to 15% of its generation by 2030.

Uzbekistan is also rapidly increasing its renewable capacity, with a target of 40% renewables in its energy mix by 2030, up from just 25%.

Additionally, Azerbaijan plans to reach 30% renewables by 2030, with 1.5 GW of wind and solar projects in the works.

Turkmenistan, however, has not set renewable energy targets yet, despite producing little to no power from renewable sources.

Strengthening interconnectors between countries, especially Kazakhstan’s northern and southern regions, as well as linking Kazakhstan to Azerbaijan, is crucial, the report noted. A direct undersea cable across the Caspian Sea, along with planned cables in the Black Sea to connect Romania and Georgia, will also help integrate Central Asia’s energy with Europe.

"The development of green energy corridors across Central Asia, the Caucasus, and Europe presents an opportunity to unlock renewable energy potential, enhance energy security, and reduce reliance on fossil fuels," the report added. "As COP29 draws attention to this pressing issue, the commitment and collaboration of nations in the region will be crucial in transforming this vision into a sustainable and interconnected energy future."