LNG markets poised for a golden era with Trump 2.0

A reliable US supply could unlock new Asian demand.

The second term of US President-elect Donald Trump is seen to be beneficial for the liquified natural gas (LNG) market as he is expected to accelerate the expansion of Washington's LNG infrastructure through deregulation and fast permitting.

According to Rystad Energy, this move of the returning president reverses the Biden administration’s regulatory pauses and increases leases on federal land for gas production.

If implemented, US LNG export capacity could nearly double from 11.3 billion cubic feet per day (Bcfd) in 2023 to 22.4 Bcfd in 2030, with major projects like Texas LNG and Calcasieu Pass (CP2). This expansion is crucial for the country to remain a major player in the global market, with demand expected to reach almost 600 million tonnes (Mt) in 2030.

“However, this rapid expansion risks oversaturating the market, potentially driving down prices and profitability for producers. The key challenge will be balancing domestic growth ambitions with global stability to ensure long-term market share and competitiveness,” said Emily McClain, head of North America Gas & LNG Research, Rystad Energy.

Rystad also warned about the risk of oversupply, especially if multiple new projects move forward simultaneously. An oversaturated market could erode prices, putting the US at a disadvantage compared to competitors like Qatar and Australia.

“However, reliable US supply would also unlock new demand, particularly from price sensitive markets in Asia, if executed strategically,” Rystad said.