Lux Research recently published a report, “Getting to Nearly-Zero Energy Buildings- Ambitious Targets, Modest Progress,” examining the drivers behind the new construction market for nearly-zero and net-zero energy buildings and projecting the market size over the next five years for building envelope materials in such buildings.
Strong national mandates in 17 countries will be the major driver for the nNZEBs, which Lux Research defines as buildings that consume less than 70 kwh/m2/year of energy.
Adoption of Passivhaus equivalent construction will start the transition to nNZEBs. Even with partial adoption, floor-space under newly constructed buildings with Passivhaus equivalent or better performance will rise to 152 million m2 in 2017, with nNZEBs commanding a 53% share of these at 81 million m2.
Asia-Pacific’s share of annual nNZEB installations will rise from 23% in 2012 to 39% in 2017 due to higher rates of new construction.
The annual installations will grow from 2.95 million m2 in 2012 to 31.4 million m2 in 2017 at a CAGR of 48%. Most of the installations in Asia-Pacific will take place in India, China, South Korea, Japan, and Australia. Nevertheless, Europe will still be important with new construction floor space for nNZEBs standing at 41 million m2 in 2017.
The building envelope materials in nNZEBs represent a $16.5 billion opportunity in 2017. Established material technologies will find a rapidly growing market in nNZEBs.
The rapid growth of nNZEBs and focus on low-cost will lead to adoption of established building materials such as air barrier membranes. However cool roof coatings and daylighting skylights are two emerging technologies that will garner $373 million and $6 billion markets respectively.
The views expressed in this column are the author's own and do not necessarily reflect this publication's view, and this article is not edited by Asian Power. The author was not remunerated for this article.
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Aditya Ranade is a Senior Analyst at Lux Research. Aditya leads the company’s Sustainable Building Materials Intelligence service while simultaneously helping start new research services such as Agro Innovation. In this role, he speaks first-hand with innovative companies, start-ups, government agencies, and research groups that are developing technologies in the fields of power and energy storage.