Hydropower dams risk cancellation as local conflicts heighten

Laos’ upcoming hydropower project could face pushbacks from Cambodia government.

At least three large-scale hydroelectric dam projects in Asia’s developing markets are expected to receive the most pronounced push-backs from civil society organisations, local communities and governments in downstream states through 2020, Fitch Solutions reported.

Although uncommon, government pushbacks in upstream countries could intensify for some projects. In Southeast Asia, the negative public sentiment towards Cambodia, after the collapse of the Xe-Pian Xe-Namnoy dam in 2018 that killed about 71 people and displaced 25,000, could prompt their government to view Laotian hydropower construction like the planned Luang Prabang Hydropower Project less sympathetically.

Likewise, the decades-long development of Turkey’s Southeastern Anatolia Project (SAP), which includes Ilisu Dam, has drastically reduced the flow levels in the Tigris and Euphrates rivers, elevating tensions between Turkey, Syria and Iraq.

Fitch also expects rising pushback from affected communities through 2020 in the form of protest action and non-compliance.

In particular, dams like Ilisu Dam, which held a long history of inhabitation that often meant that it would have sites of cultural significance that would be destroyed by inundation, could promote a strong reaction from affected communities. Myitsone Dam in Myanmar may also see similar local opposition.

“With very few commercially viable, uninhabited and unprotected sites for prospective hydropower development still available in most of these markets, developers have increasingly been required to develop sites with one or more of these factors at play; motivating pushback on both local and international levels,” the report stated.