Türkiye energy import bill to rise $14b on Gulf conflict

Import dependence locked the economy into multi-billion external energy shocks.

Türkiye’s energy import bill will rise by about $14b in 2026 due to higher oil and gas prices following disruption at the Strait of Hormuz, according to Ember.

In an analysis published on 12 June, Ember said the increase reflects a $7.7b rise in crude oil import costs and a $6.4b increase in gas import spending following the closure of the Strait of Hormuz after the escalation of conflict involving the US, Israel, and Iran in late February 2026.

“Between 28 February and 1 May 2026, Brent crude oil prices surged by 50%. European gas prices rose by 45%, and coal prices increased by 3%,” the think tank said.

Net energy imports in Türkiye increased by around $3b from March to May compared with a year earlier.

Türkiye meets around two-thirds of its energy demand through imported fossil fuels, with import dependence at 95% for natural gas, 83% for crude oil, and 60% for coal.

Oil import costs will increase by $7.7b, with road transport accounting for around $5.2b of the additional expense.

Gas import costs will rise by $6.4b, including $2.3b from households, $1.6b from electricity generation, and $1.5b from industry.

Türkiye’s net energy import bill averaged $42b a year between 2015 and 2024, equivalent to 4.5% of gross domestic product.

“In 2022, net energy imports exceeded $80b during the Russia–Ukraine war, reaching a historic peak,” it said, adding that the country recorded its third-highest trade deficit on record at $47b.

It also paid $47b for net energy imports in 2025.