China to drive growth in global non-hydro renewables capacity

It is expected to add 556GW between end-2018 and 2028.

China is expected to drive the growth in global non-hydro renewables capacity by adding 556GW within end-2018 to 2028, according to Fitch Solutions.

The global capacity is projected to expand 110% to over 2.5TW and make up 60% of the total net capacity growth across all technologies over the same period. Along with China, the US and India are estimated to add about 185GW and 135GW respectively.

However, non-hydro renewables will only comprise 42% of the global net power generation growth over the period due to the relatively low capacity factors for wind and solar.

On the other hand, coal is expected to generate 31% of power by 2028, although declining from 38% in 2018, as coal-fired power generation is set to remain a key component of the power mix in many emerging markets including China, South Asia, and Southeast Asia.

A separate report by Global Energy Monitor (GEM) found that China has 195.6GW of total coal capacity under development as of July, attributed to looser restrictions after a permitting surge in 2014 to 2016.

“In particular, we see the substantial investment into new coal-fired capacity in emerging markets over the last five years remaining a pertinent challenge to global power generation mix decarbonistation, as there will likely be limited appetite to prematurely close these assets due to the high sunk investment costs,” the report wrote.