Power shortage in 2020-2030 looms over Vietnam

Oil-fired power plants need to generate 5.2 billion kWh by 2020.

Vietnam is expected to face a power shortage in 2020 to 2030 given that it doesn't get enough coal and gas for generation, Viet Nam News reports, citing a forum held by the Ministry of Trade and Industry (MoIT).

Vietnam Electricity (EVN) had indicated that it has completed 40 power plants with a total capacity of 20,586MW in order to meet the electricity development.

By 2018, the country's total installed capacity could reach 47,768MW, ranking second in the ASEAN and 25th in the world. By 2030, demand will continue to grow rapidly.

The electricity sector will need to ensure 265-278 billion kWh by 2020 and around 572-632 billion kWh by 2030.

The growth rate in the period 2016-2020 is 10.3-11.3% per annum whilst the expected rate for the period 2021-30 about 8-8.5 per cent.

Ngô Sơn Hải, Deputy General Director of EVN, said that the electricity supply in the years 2019-20 could be ensured. However, oil-fired thermal power plants would have to generate approximately 4.4 billion kWh by 2019 and 5.2 billion kWh by 2020.

“During the years 2021-30, the electricity system may not meet demand and power shortages could occur in the south,” said Hải.

Hải said power shortages may increase up to 2025 under scenarios including high load or the volume of water in reservoirs being lower than previous years. The gas projects of Bloc B and Cá Voi Xanh (Blue whale) and several others are progressing slowly, he added.

"Each of the 1,200MW coal-fired power plants in the south facing slow progress will worsen the shortage by 7.2-7.5 billion kWh per year," said Hải.