Energy emissions to peak in 2024: DNV

However, Paris Agreement goals remain out of reach.

This year is expected to be the period when energy related emissions will peak due to cheaper solar and battery costs that are fueling the decline of coal and limiting oil's growth, according to DNV’s Energy Transition Outlook. 

Solar installations surged 80% last year as it outcompeted coal in many regions, whilst batteries, which were cheaper by 14% in cost last year, made 24-hour solar delivery and electric vehicles more affordable.

The uptake of oil, meanwhile, was limited as electrical vehicles sales grew by 50%. 

China accounted for 58% of global solar installations and 63% of new electrical vehicle purchases last year. Whilst it is the largest consumer of coal and emitter of carbon, its dependence on fossil fuels is set to fall rapidly as it continues to install solar and wind, DNV said.  

The country is also a major exporter of green technologies although international tariffs are making their goods more expensive in some territories.

Unfortunately, this performance was not replicated in other sectors where essential technologies are advancing slowly.

DNV has lowered its hydrogen forecast to 4% of final energy demand in 2050, while estimating only 6% of global emissions will be captured by CCS by that year. A global carbon price could boost adoption of these technologies.

Wind will remain a major driver in energy transition, contributing to 28% of electricity generation by 2050. Offshore wind will also experience a 12% annual growth rate although existing challenges are weighing on growth, DNV said.

By 2050, DNV expects emissions to be almost half, but still far from the requirements of the Paris Agreement. The report forecasts the planet will warm by 2.2 °C by the end of the century.

Remi Eriksen, group president and CEO of DNV, said the hard-to-electrify sectors need a renewed policy push to address the problem.

“Emissions peaking is a milestone for humanity. But we must now focus on how quickly emissions decline and use the available tools to accelerate the energy transition,” he said.