Laos’ large hydropower to reach 16 GW in 2035

The country eyes 12 GW this year.

Laos’ hydropower capacity is projected to reach 16 gigawatts (GW) in 2035, with a compound annual growth rate of 4.8% from 2024 to 2035, according to GlobalData.

“The nation is poised to export renewable electricity to Thailand, Cambodia, and Vietnam, and to a lesser extent, to Myanmar and Malaysia. Against this backdrop, large hydropower capacity in the country is expected to reach 16GW in 2035,” GlobalData said in its latest analysis.

Laos’ Ministry of Energy and Mines aims for 12 GW of hydropower capacity by 2025 and 20 GW by 2030.

Meanwhile, GlobalData estimates that the country’s annual large hydropower generation is expected to increase 4.6% between 2024 to 2035 to reach 63.5 terawatt-hours. However, its current pace may cause a gap from the 2030 target, which will need policy enforcement and time-bound targets.

“Laos has established itself as a net exporter of electricity, earning the moniker ‘Battery of Southeast Asia.’ The nation produces an excess of electricity beyond its domestic needs, facilitating the export of this surplus to neighboring countries,” said Attaurrahman Ojindaram Saibasan, Senior Power Analyst at GlobalData.

Thailand stands as the foremost recipient of Laotian electricity, utilising both 500 kilovolt (kV) and 230 kilovolt transmission lines for this purpose. It is followed by Vietnam, receiving electricity via 220 kV and 500kV transmission lines.

“Laos relies significantly on export revenue, which renders its economy susceptible to fluctuations in external markets. To manage the increasing cross-border electricity flows, there is a pressing need for infrastructure enhancements,” Saibasan said.

“Moreover, as prices are frequently determined by purchasers such as Thailand and Vietnam, Laos finds its bargaining power constrained. The country should look to invest in energy storage systems and upgrading its grid to overcome these challenges,” he added.