Global offshore wind to breach 520 GW by 2040

Asia and Europe are the likely drivers. 

Despite setbacks, global offshore wind installations grew seven percent in 2023 and are projected to rapidly expand, surpassing 520 gigawatts (GW) by 2040, excluding China, according to Rystad Energy.

In its analysis, Rystad Energy said Europe will drive the growth as it heavily depends on floating wind to meet national targets. The continent is expected to account for more than 70% of global floating wind installations by 2040.

“Although some project delays beyond 2030 are anticipated, there will likely be a strong push to accelerate deployment. As a result, floating wind capacity is projected to approach 90 GW by 2040, with the UK, France and Portugal at the forefront of development,” it said. 

Asia, which is a mature market, will also play a crucial role in developing floating wind technology. By 2040, the region, excluding mainland China, is expected to account for 20% of global installations.

Rystad Energy said supply chain constraints, similar to those affecting bottom-fixed wind, are slowing the progress of floating wind. These could hinder the advancement of floating wind technology in the short term, with capacity estimates of less than seven gigawatts by 2030. To overcome these hurdles, increased government support is crucial.

“Whilst ambitious targets boost investor confidence, it is crucial to address logistical issues to ensure that offshore wind can successfully take a key role in the energy transition. This will not only help the technology mature, but also foster a supportive ecosystem that inspires investor reliance,” said Petra Manuel, senior analyst, Offshore Wind at Rystad Energy.

Meanwhile, UK, Germany and the Netherlands are expected to dominate the bottom-fixed market. They are projected to account for a total of 150 GW of installed capacity by 2040, followed by the US with less than 40 GW, Rystad Energy said. 

From 2025 to 2030, Rystad Energy anticipates that only Asia and Europe will be actively installing floating wind capacity. By 2030, Europe will have installed almost five gigawatts of floating wind, whilst Asia, excluding mainland China, is projected to add two gigawatts.