POWER UTILITY | Staff Reporter, China

Stagnation looms over China's coal-fired power generation

Growth is predicted to be a measly 0.5% over the next 10 years.

BMI Research forecasts stagnation in China's coal-fired power generation over the next decade. While it does expect coal generation to grow by an annual average of 0.5% between 2017 and 2026, this entails a substantial slowdown from historic levels. 

"This growth can also be contextualised by the fact that coal power generation has contracted since end-2013 (we expect coal power output to return to growth in 2018) and we expect total coal-fired generation in 2026 will trend below that of the peak in 2013," BMI said. "Coal's relative importance in China's power mix will be eroded, and we forecast coal-fired power's share in the power mix to fall from 67.4% over 2017, to 53.8% in 2026."

The slowdown in coal power generation feeds into its further view of a stabilisation in coal feedstock production over the coming five years - as there will be limited scope for a substantial ramp-up in demand

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