APAC electricity demand to grow 3.4% in 2022
This is due to the lower economic growth and high energy prices.
Electricity demand in the Asia Pacific region is expected to grow at around 3.4% in 2022, a downward revision by over one percentage point from the early 2022 forecast, according to a report by the International Energy Agency (IEA).
The IEA said the downward revision is mainly driven by the lower economic growth, high energy prices, strict sanitary measures, and extended effects of coal shortage for power generation.
Demand in China is expected to increase by 3% this year, according to IEA.
China posted a 0.5% year-on-year increase in the first five months of 2022, as it has seen a decline in April and May as zero-COVID strategy measures were in place due to new outbreaks, which strongly affected energy consumption, with some industries forced to top their operations.
“The outlook for the rest of 2022 remains highly uncertain and will depend on the stringency of sanitary measures. Potential reform of China’s ‘dual control’ policy, which would replace caps on total energy consumption and energy intensity by caps on total carbon emissions and carbon intensity, could trigger an increase in total demand,” it said.
If renewables supply the additional demand, a rise in total demand beyond the existing caps is possible, it said.
India, on the other hand, is expected to have its demand grow to 7%, up from the previous forecast of 6%, following the heatwave the country experienced.
With temperatures increasing up to 50 degrees Celcius, air conditioning use is boosted, creating a surge in electricity demand, including new-all-time highs along with supply shortages, the agency said.
Overall for 2023, the IEA expects demand growth of close to 4% in the region, “making up for some of the 2022 slowdown.” China’s electricity demand is expected to be over 4% next year, on the back of recovery from suppressed demand in 2022.
The IEA, meanwhile, revised its growth forecast for India to 5% in 2023 from 6%, due to the expected impact of high global prices and a correction against temperature-driven growth in 2022.