ASEAN grids risk cascading blackouts amidst 64% fossil reliance

Solar and battery projects could displace 1.4 terawatt-hours of Indonesian coal generation by 2030.

ASEAN's power systems face rising exposure to climate and disaster risks as fossil fuels account for 64% of installed power capacity and most countries deploy grids built around centralised generation.

The region's reliance on large power plants and transmission networks can leave wider areas exposed when earthquakes, typhoons, floods, or other shocks damage generation or transmission infrastructure, according to Ember.

The think tank said in its report, Shaping a Resilient Power System in ASEAN, that distributed renewable networks can prevent cascading blackouts by allowing unaffected parts of a system to continue operating whilst damaged sections undergo repairs.

The report said ASEAN faces two types of threats: gradual climate stress that affects power generation and sudden disasters that can damage infrastructure.

"Thermal and nuclear plants are hit hardest, with capacity factors potentially falling by up to 4% under high-warming scenarios," it said.

Under a high-emissions 4-5°C warming scenario, ASEAN wind projects could see yield variations of around 0.7%, reaching 112 gigawatt-hours (GWh), by 2030, whilst solar generation could see variations of around 0.2%, or 70GWh.

The report said governments need to combine renewable generation with storage, grid interconnections, and flexible demand to strengthen system resilience.

In Indonesia, 67 coal-fired power plants with a combined capacity of 8.9 gigawatts (GW) operate in earthquake-prone areas.

Central Sulawesi's Regional Energy Master Plan includes 2.25GW of additional coal capacity by 2030. A 7.4-magnitude earthquake in 2018 damaged the 30-megawatt (MW) Panau coal-fired power plant.

Ember's analysis shows that deploying 600MW of solar with 720 megawatt-hours of battery storage could offset 250MW of coal capacity, or 1.4 terawatt-hours of coal generation, in 2030.

In the Philippines, a planned 58-megavolt-ampere interconnection between Catanduanes and Luzon could supply up to 22% of the island's electricity demand by 2030.

The report said the interconnection could help re-energise the system and provide black-start services after disruptions.

The report also called for energy planning to be integrated into ASEAN's disaster management framework, including the ASEAN Agreement on Disaster Management and Emergency Response.

"Strengthening power system resilience must be at the core of ASEAN's energy transition," said Felix William B. Fuentebella, Philippine Senior Official on Energy leader.