Energy demand to peak at 717 EJ in 2035 as demographics reshape outlook

Electricity consumption is forecast to double to 71 petawatt-hours over the same period.

Global primary energy consumption will rise 8% from current levels to peak at 717 exajoules (EJ) in 2035, before declining to 672 EJ by 2060, as falling fertility rates and demographic shifts pose a structural risk to long-term demand, according to Wood Mackenzie.

Electricity consumption is forecast to double to 71 petawatt-hours over the same period.

Wood Mackenzie said declining fertility rates and ageing populations present a structural risk to long-term energy demand projections, with the trend potentially increasing demand for electricity and critical minerals whilst accelerating the shift away from hydrocarbons.

"A lower population does not diminish the draw on critical minerals," said Prakash Sharma, head of energy transition at Wood Mackenzie. "Electrification, renewables, and AI adoption create unprecedented demand for those resources whilst accelerating the structural shift away from hydrocarbons."

The global fertility rate fell to 2.2 births per woman in 2025, close to the 2.1 replacement ratio needed to maintain a stable population, the firm said.

A UN low-birth-rate scenario places peak global population at 8.9 billion in 2053, before falling to 7.0 billion by 2100.

China illustrates the trend in Asia, with its birth rate falling to 5.6 births per 1,000 people in 2025, the lowest level on record, whilst its population declined by 3.4 million to 1.40 billion—9.6 million below the UN's 2024 projection.

"Demographics dictate destiny," said Peter Martin, head of economics at Wood Mackenzie, adding that shrinking workforces could slow GDP growth, with direct consequences for energy demand.

The UN currently projects global population will rise from 8.2 billion in 2025 to 10.0 billion in 2060, though Wood Mackenzie said observed fertility trends suggest this could be revised lower.

Unmet energy needs across Asia and Africa, alongside rising incomes, electrification, and technology adoption, mean most drivers of energy demand remain robust, the firm said.

A lower population trajectory could also increase investment in automation as economies face smaller workforces.

Wood Mackenzie said demographic changes should become part of long-term energy planning as governments and companies assess future demand patterns.